A stronger-than-expected first half has prompted the Interactive Advertising Bureau to raise its US advertising growth forecast for 2026. The IAB expects DooH spending to increase 7 percent, although its latest projection is slightly lower than its January estimate.
Advertising Forecast: IAB raises US Ad Forecast, Projects 7% DooH Growth
The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) now expects US advertising spending to grow 12.3 percent in 2026, up from the 9.5 percent increase it projected in January.
The revised outlook follows a stronger-than-expected first half supported by major events including the Winter Olympics and Fifa World Cup. Advertising buyers also expressed fewer concerns about economic headwinds than they did at the beginning of the year.
The IAB projects a 7 percent increase in DooH spending, slightly below its January forecast of 7.4 percent and expects DooH to trail several other digital channels but remain well ahead of linear television, which it forecasts will decline 1.5 percent.
Social media leads growth
Social media is forecast to record the strongest increase at 16.5 percent, followed by connected TV at 15.6 percent and commerce media at 13.6%. The outlook calls for digital video excluding connected TV to grow 9.4%, podcasts by 8.7% and paid search by 8.1%.
The findings are based on responses from more than 200 brand and agency advertising decision-makers.
Customer acquisition remains marketers’ leading media investment goal and was selected by 63 percent of respondents, an increase of nine percentage points since January. Building brand equity rose six points to 43 percent, while repeat purchases remained nearly unchanged at 24 percent.
AI changes brand discovery
The study also points to growing concern about how artificial intelligence is changing product discovery. Adapting to evolving consumer behavior, including AI-driven search, was identified as the leading media investment challenge by 44 percent of buyers. Another 38 percent cited concerns about low-quality AI-generated content.
More than 75% of respondents said they were increasing their focus on optimizing content for answers generated by AI platforms. Meanwhile, 86% have changed or expect to change how they measure media performance because of conversational AI and AI agents during the next 12 months.
Those measurement changes include tracking brand visibility and citations within AI tools, monitoring referral traffic and using third-party AI discovery analysis platforms.
The IAB’s updated forecast was released Sept. 10 as part of its 2026 Outlook Study: September Update.