The downward trend continues: according to HDE figures, a further 4,900 stores across Germany will close in 2026. However, other key indicators have remained stable over the years.
Retail Forecast Germany: 4,900 Stores to Close in 2026
On 24 and 25 March, the Retail Real Estate Congress will take place in Berlin. In the run-up to the event, the German Retail Association (HDE) has released new figures highlighting the continued decline in the retail sector.
According to the HDE’s forecast for 2026, around 4,900 stores in Germany are expected to close. This figure already accounts for new openings. As a result, the total number of retail outlets nationwide will fall below 300,000. Ten years ago, the figure stood at 366,800.
While the number of stores has been on a clear downward trend for several years, the picture is different when it comes to retail floor space. Here, the HDE recorded stable figures through 2024. In other words, there are fewer stores overall, but the market continues to see flagship projects that serve as key locations for large-scale digital experiences.
Stagnating consumption, high costs
According to the HDE, the decline in store numbers is driven by stagnating consumer spending and persistently high costs for rent, energy, and personnel.
The years of the Covid pandemic have left particularly deep marks. In 2021, the second year of the pandemic, around 11,500 store closures were recorded. While the situation has improved somewhat since then, the downward trend continues.
HDE President Alexander von Preen is calling for a change in political direction. “Policymakers have a responsibility to reduce costs for energy and employment. Electricity tax must finally be lowered for all, and non-wage labor costs need to be capped at 40 percent. Landlords, too, should increasingly embrace turnover-based rents in their own interest. Vacancies benefit no one,” he said.
Von Preen also emphasized that retail remains the backbone of vibrant city centers. Anyone looking to shape or preserve urban cores therefore needs a healthy retail sector.
In addition, the HDE is calling for improved depreciation options for rental, personnel, and energy expenses, a move intended to attract private investment.
